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Mar 27, 2024
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Georgia’s Credit Outlook Constrained By Geopolitical Sensitivities, Institutional Risks

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In addition, the prospective re-election of Donald J. Trump in the United States could raise risks later this year, given the isolationist foreign-policy stance of the former president. Any Pro-western Pivot In The Future Might Abruptly Elevate Geopolitical Risk For Georgia, any medium-run pro-Western pivot could abruptly elevate geopolitical risk, especially given its geographical border

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In addition, the prospective re-election of Donald J. Trump in the United States could raise risks later this year, given the isolationist foreign-policy stance of the former president.

Any Pro-western Pivot In The Future Might Abruptly Elevate Geopolitical Risk
For Georgia, any medium-run pro-Western pivot could abruptly elevate geopolitical risk, especially given its geographical border with Russia. Russia’s 2008 invasion was intended to halt Georgia’s EU and NATO accession under ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili (Figure src). Occupation of secessionist South Ossetia and Abkhazia is ongoing. Risks could escalate, for example, following future elections given the underlying pro-EU undertone and sentiment of a significant share of the population.

Closer links with the European Union as envisioned by conditional candidate status for accession announced in December last year may further stress relations with Russia, especially if Georgia makes material progress on meeting accession conditions.

Russia is unlikely to tolerate any nation of the European Union or NATO on the country’s southern rim. The incumbent Georgian Dream government has sought to pursue a more pro-Russian pol

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